How to Use Your Judgment Effectively

In a world where we have ready access to a mountain of information on pretty much everything, decision-making processes in many companies have become more and more about data analytics.

Relying more on facts, and less on opinions is a good thing, right?!

But, in my experience, the best decisions strike a balance between quantitative and qualitative inputs. Let’s face it, some of the things that might influence your decisions defy accurate measurement.

But it doesn’t mean they’re not important, and it doesn’t mean you should ignore them.

The concept of using gut feel in decision-making is sometimes frowned upon, but over my years as a senior executive, I came to realize how important it is to pay attention to your instincts.

When your gut is telling you something, you’re receiving a message from your accumulated judgement and experience.

Just because something is quantifiable, and presented to us in a graph, chart, or spreadsheet, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s true and accurate… 

… although our tendency is to accept it on face value.

We rarely question the efficacy of what’s being presented:

• What was the original source of the data?
• What assumptions were made in collating the data?
• What’s missing from the data that might make a difference to how we interpret it?

Most data has assumptions and bias built into it. So it’s important to question anything that doesn’t feel right.we sometimes call this crap-testing, or reasonableness testing.

Let me spell this out with a simple example. Modern cars are designed to capture a whole host of information, and provide feedback to the driver. We don’t really question it.

One piece of information that we take for granted is the odometer reading. How far has the car travelled since it rolled off the production line?

Even though that data is captured directly from the car’s internal systems, and we can rely on it almost 100% of the time, there are still circumstances where that data might come into question.

If I see a brand new Tesla with 5,000 miles on the clock, I’d be inclined to believe it. My judgment would coincide with the data that I’m being presented with.

However, if I saw a beaten up 1985 Ford Escort with 5,000 miles on it, I would be right to be skeptical. My gut would tell me that the data on the odometer has somehow been tampered with.

We’re constantly taking in information, using all of our 5 senses

We’re constantly reading people’s tone and body language

We pick up on non-verbal and visual cues

We are continually calibrating different sources of information for consistency, patterns, and exceptions

If we collectively call these things “gut feel”, then why wouldn’t we rely on it?

It’s entirely appropriate for us to use our experience and judgement to assess the reliability of any information we’re presented with… 

… and where no information exists, to use that judgment to fill in the gaps.

Great leadership requires an integrated approach – head, heart, and gut!

And if you want to make great decisions quickly, you need to recognize the value that each one of those sources of information can play.